Each month, CAISSA performs an analysis of prevailing global events, assessing their potential influence on our client’s wealth plan. We are diligently having strategic discussions with our portfolio managers, ensuring that our position remains informed and aligned with current market dynamics.

Below, you will find CAISSA’s perspective on these global events.

Lack of Progress on Inflation 

After making initial progress in lowering inflation, recent economic data points towards sticker inflation than previously expected. 

CAISSA Perspective: Many of the areas of inflation, such as auto insurance, are not as impacted by the actions of the Fed and are proving to be more difficult to lower than expected. Inflations remain stubborn, and recent economic data has led the Fed to continue its “higher for longer” rhetoric, pushing expected rate cuts even further down the road. As of this point, we have not seen enough to warrant the Fed to reverse course and explore additional rate hikes. However, it is beginning to look more and more like rate cuts may be pushed to November or December if inflation and employment data continue at their current pace. 

GLP–1 Miracle Weight Loss Drug? 

Popular diabetes drugs have shown significant success in combating weight loss and have boosted manufacturers’ stock prices. 

CAISSA Perspective: The surging popularity of GLP-1 diabetes drugs, Wegovy, Ozempic, and Mounjaro as a weight loss tool has driven significant stock appreciation for companies such as Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly and AstraZeneca. It is widely believed that GLP-1 drugs may have significant long-term economic and health impacts. Many investors are playing “offense,” looking to participate in the growing demand by owning stocks tied to the manufacturing and sales of these drugs. Perhaps more interestingly, we have heard from many portfolio managers who are beginning to play “defense” and actively shying away from certain industries such as junk food, sleep apnea devices, and weight loss tools, which they believe may suffer long-term growth impairment from the success of GLP-1s. 

Apple iPhone Shipments Jump in China 

Apple iPhone shipments surged 12% in March after suffering a multi-month decline. 

CAISSA Perspective: The slowdown in China has been significant for U.S.-based businesses such as Apple and Tesla. After several months of declining sales, Apple saw a 12% surge in its March data. On the surface, this looks positive, as China accounts for roughly 20% of all Apple sales. However, after demand slowed, Apple discounted iPhones in China, and Piper Sandler and Barclays downgraded Apple. Chinese government agencies have unofficially banned Apple products, and local Chinese competition is heating up. While this was a promising increase in sales, it still remains unclear how sustainable this growth is in light of the headwinds that still remain.